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Posterior-Hacking: Selective Reporting Invalidates Bayesian Results Also

10 Pages Posted: 3 Jan 2014  

Uri Simonsohn

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

Date Written: January 2, 2014

Abstract

Many believe that Bayesian statistics are robust to p-hacking. Many are wrong. In this paper I show with simulations and actual data that the two Bayesian approaches that have been proposed within Psychology, Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, are as invalidated by selective reporting as p-values are. Going Bayesian may offer some benefits, providing a solution to selective reporting is not one of them. Required disclosure is the only solution.

Keywords: p-hacking, publication bias, selective reporting, Bayesian, chronological rejuvenation

Suggested Citation

Simonsohn, Uri, Posterior-Hacking: Selective Reporting Invalidates Bayesian Results Also (January 2, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2374040 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2374040

Uri Simonsohn (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

3730 Walnut Street
JMHH 500
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

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