An Analysis of the Changing Social Bases of America's Political Parties: 1952-2008
Zingher, Joshua N. (2014) An Analysis of the Changing Social Bases of America’s Political Parties: 1952-2008, Electoral Studies, 35: 272-282.
11 Pages Posted: 6 Jan 2014 Last revised: 22 May 2015
Date Written: February 10, 2014
In this article I assess how the social bases of the American political parties have evolved over time. To accomplish this task, I first determine which social group memberships significantly influence individual vote choice with a multivariate analysis of ANES data. I then measure how many votes each politically relevant social group contributed to the party coalitions in each presidential election from 1952-2008. I discuss how group contributions have changed over time and establish the demographic and behavioral causes of group contribution change. I find that the party coalitions have been restructured as a result of groups’ changing voting behavior and the changing ratio of groups in the electorate.
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