High-Frequency Runs and Flash Crash Predictability
Posted: 7 Jan 2014 Last revised: 2 May 2014
Date Written: January 5, 2014
This research investigates the short-term nature of movements in price data. The key finding of the study is that asset returns do not evolve at the Gaussian increments commonly assumed by continuous pricing models. Instead, prices exhibit strong autocorrelation, often resulting in predictable one-directional sequences or “runs.” These runs are more pronounced ahead of market crashes. Identifying these runs can help predict impending flash crashes as much as a day in advance of a crash. The research further contributes to asset pricing and derivatives literature by deriving discreet and continuous closed-form expressions for the probability of flash crashes.
Keywords: high-frequency trading, market microstructure, flash crash, market crash
JEL Classification: B23, C22, G12, D46
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