23 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2014 Last revised: 27 May 2014
Date Written: February 8, 2014
Inspired by visualization techniques à la Feynman, we introduce Stochastic Flow Diagrams (SFDs), a new mathematical approach to represent complex dynamic systems into a single weighted digraph. This topological representation provides a way to visualize what otherwise would be a morass of equations in differences. SFDs model the propagation and reverberation that follows a shock. For example, reverberation explains how a shock to a financial system can initiate a sequence of events that lead to a crash long after the occurrence of the shock. SFDs can simulate systems in stable, steady or explosive state. SFDs add Topology to the Statistical and Econometric toolkit. We believe that SFDs will help policy makers, investors and researchers communicate and discuss better the complexity of dynamic systems.
Keywords: Time Series, Graph Theory, Topology, Financial Flows, Macro Trading
JEL Classification: G0, G1, G2, G15, G24, E44
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Calkin, Neil J. and Lopez de Prado, Marcos, Stochastic Flow Diagrams (February 8, 2014). Algorithmic Finance 2014, 3:1-2, 21-42. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2379314 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2379314
By Nassim Taleb