Understanding the MPC's Forecast Performance Since Mid-2010

15 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2014

Date Written: December 20, 2013

Abstract

Macroeconomic performance in the United Kingdom has been disappointing in recent years: for most of the post-crisis period, GDP growth has been unexpectedly weak, and inflation unexpectedly strong. That unexpected weakness in GDP reflects a combination of weaker growth in the United Kingdom’s trading partners, tighter domestic credit conditions and slower dissipation of uncertainty. Unanticipated rises in energy and other imported costs can broadly account for the surprising strength in inflation since mid-2010. Weak effective supply is likely to have counteracted the impact of weak demand on inflation.

Suggested Citation

Hackworth, Christopher and Radia, Amar and Roberts, Nyssa, Understanding the MPC's Forecast Performance Since Mid-2010 (December 20, 2013). Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2013 Q4, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2379367

Christopher Hackworth (Contact Author)

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Amar Radia

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Nyssa Roberts

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

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