A Financial Conditions Index for Poland

Abstract

This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches — factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index’s forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland’s economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.

Keywords: Financial sector, Poland, Economic conditions, Economic models, Financial conditions index, factor analysis, vector auto-regression, gdp growth, bond, bond yield, government bond yield, stock index, real gdp, growth rates, stock price, stock prices, stock price indices, business cycle, gdp deflator, financial market, stock market capitalization, bond yields, equity market, financial institutions, gdp growth rate, gdp growth rates

JEL Classification: E17, E44, E50