Facing the Experts: Survey Mode and Expert Elicitation

39 Pages Posted: 25 Jan 2014

See all articles by Erin Baker

Erin Baker

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Karen E. Jenni

Carnegie Mellon University

Elena Claire Ricci

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Date Written: January 24, 2014

Abstract

In this paper we compare the results of two different expert elicitation methods: in-person interviews and a self-administered web-based survey. Traditional expert elicitation has been done face to face, with an elicitor meeting with an expert for a few hours to several days, depending on the complexity of the analysis. Recently, however, some groups have been using other methods to solicit expert judgments, including self-administered surveys (written, emailed, and web-based), and the use of interactive web tools to facilitate interactions during an elicitation. These elicitations require fewer resources from the assessment team than in-person interviews, and often allow participating experts to provide input on their own schedules, perhaps with additional time to think about their responses. Thus they open up the possibility of using expert elicitation to obtain inputs relevant to a broader set of decisions. To our knowledge, these newer survey-based methods have not been rigorously evaluated for efficacy. We find, much like the results in the literature on different survey modes, different results from two different modes we examined, but no clear indication of which method might be preferred. We suggest future work including some controlled, lab-based experiments and real EEs well designed to avoid sample selection biases and specifically targeted to capture survey mode effects. Such studies would help us determine whether and when the different survey modes are most effective.

Keywords: Expert Elicitation, Interviews, Web Surveys, Carbon Capture and Storage

JEL Classification: D81, O32, Q55, Q40

Suggested Citation

Baker, Erin and Bosetti, Valentina and Jenni, Karen E. and Ricci, Elena Claire, Facing the Experts: Survey Mode and Expert Elicitation (January 24, 2014). FEEM Working Paper No. 1.2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2384487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2384487

Erin Baker

University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department ( email )

Department of Operations and Information Managemen
Amherst, MA 01003
United States

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Karen E. Jenni

Carnegie Mellon University ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

Elena Claire Ricci (Contact Author)

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

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