A Model of Longevity, Fertility and Growth

Posted: 30 Jan 2014

See all articles by Giam Cipriani

Giam Cipriani

University of Verona - Department of Economics

Keith Blackburn

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences

Date Written: 2002

Abstract

Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a dynamic general equilibrium model of longevity, fertility and growth. Reproductive agents in overlapping generations mature safely through two periods of life and face an endogenous probability of surviving for a third period. Given this probability, each agent maximises her expected lifetime utility by choosing consumption and the number of children. Child-bearing is costly in the sense that time must be spent on child-rearing activities rather than on production or education. The model produces multiple development regimes which yield different predictions about life expectancy, fertility, timing of births and educational investment depending on initial conditions. These predictions accord strongly with the empirical evidence on demography and development.

Keywords: Longevity, Fertility, Human capital, Growth

JEL Classification: J13, O11, O40

Suggested Citation

Cipriani, Giam and Blackburn, Keith, A Model of Longevity, Fertility and Growth (2002). Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 78, 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2387491

Giam Cipriani (Contact Author)

University of Verona - Department of Economics ( email )

Via dell'Artigliere, 8
37129 Verona
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://dse.univr.it/cipriani

Keith Blackburn

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

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