Data-Based Priors for Vector Autoregressions with Drifting Coefficients
25 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2014
Date Written: February 6, 2014
This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.
Keywords: TVP-VAR, shrinkage, data-based prior, forecasting
JEL Classification: C11, C22, C32, C52, C53, C63, E17, E58
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