How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

28 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2014  

Yu Yongding

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

Date Written: February 14, 2014

Abstract

Since the formal launch of the renminbi trade settlement scheme in 2009, renminbi internationalization has made impressive inroads. The progress in renminbi trade settlement is especially impressive. However, Hong Kong, China’s offshore renminbi deposits failed to make significant progress as expected. The question of how far renminbi internationalization can go has become a common concern in the international financial community. This paper argues that the sheer size of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) trade and the convenience of using the renminbi for transaction settlements is one contributing factor, but that exchange rate arbitrage and interest rate arbitrage matter also. As well, a fundamental constraint for renminbi internationalization is the PRC’s capital controls. Before fully opening up its capital account and making the renminbi freely convertible, however, the PRC needs first to put its own house in order, most importantly making the renminbi exchange rate flexible. While the renminbi can and will become a major international currency eventually, the road to internationalization is bound to be long and bumpy.

Keywords: renminbi; trade settlement; capital account liberalization; capital controls; store of value

JEL Classification: F31, F33

Suggested Citation

Yongding, Yu, How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go? (February 14, 2014). ADBI Working Paper 461. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2395825 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2395825

Yu Yongding (Contact Author)

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

Beijing, 100732
China

Paper statistics

Downloads
144
Rank
165,825
Abstract Views
588