The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon Under Different Local Sea Level Rises

20 Pages Posted: 20 Feb 2014

See all articles by Massimiliano Caporin

Massimiliano Caporin

University of Padua - Department of Statistical Sciences

Fulvio Fontini

University of Padova - Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno"

Date Written: February 18, 2014

Abstract

Venice (Italy) is built on several islands inside a lagoon. It undergoes a periodical ‡flooding phenomenon, called "Acqua Alta" (AA). A system of mobile dams, called Mo.S.E., is currently under construction to protect it. When needed, several ‡floodgates will be lifted to separate the lagoon from the Adriatic sea. AA, whose length and height has been increasing in recent years, is a random phenomenon, correlated with local sea level rise (LSLR). Several possible LSLRs can be assumed as consequences of different global warming scenarios. We investigate here the cost-benefi…t of Mo.S.E. under different possible LSLRs. First, we simulate the future patterns of AA for the next 50 years under alternative LSLRs. Then, we calculate the benefi…t of Mo.S.E., converting each avoided AA episode into an economic value (avoided cost). We show that the bene…fits are just at the level of the costs, when a low LSLR is assumed and increase with LSLR, provided that it does not reach a catastrophic (yet unpredictable) extreme level.

Keywords: Acqua Alta, Local Sea Level Rise, Cost-Benefit

JEL Classification: Q54, D61, C22, C53

Suggested Citation

Caporin, Massimiliano and Fontini, Fulvio, The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon Under Different Local Sea Level Rises (February 18, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2397933 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2397933

Massimiliano Caporin (Contact Author)

University of Padua - Department of Statistical Sciences ( email )

Via Battisti, 241
Padova, 35121
Italy

Fulvio Fontini

University of Padova - Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno" ( email )

Via del Santo, 33
Padova, 35123
Italy

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