Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions

Abstract

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital outflow restrictions in a sample of 37 emerging market economies during the period 1995-2010, using a panel vector autoregression approach with interaction terms. Specifically, it examines whether a tightening of outflow restrictions helps reduce net capital outflows. We find that such tightening is effective if it is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals or good institutions, or if existing restrictions are already fairly comprehensive. When none of these three conditions is fulfilled, a tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows as it provokes a sizeable decline in gross inflows, mainly driven by foreign investors.

Keywords: Capital outflows, Emerging markets, Capital controls, Economic models, Time series, Capital flows, Emerging economies, net capital, capital inflows, capital flow restrictions, net capital outflows, net capital flows, capital transactions, volatile capital flows, capital account restrictions, capital market, international capital, access to funds, inflation rate, stock market capitalization, speculative attacks, movement of capital, investor confidence, current account balance, stabilization policies

JEL Classification: E50, F3, F65