The 2013 Philippine Mid-Term Election: An Empirical Analysis of Dynasties, Vote Buying and the Correlates of Senate Votes

42 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2014 Last revised: 27 Feb 2014

Ronald U. Mendoza

Ateneo De Manila University - Ateneo School of Government

Mario Antonio Lopez

Asian Institute of Management

David Barua Yap II

Asian Institute of Management - Policy Center

Tristan A. Canare

Asian Institute of Management - Policy Center

Date Written: February 25, 2014

Abstract

This note contains a preliminary analysis of patterns regarding (separately) political dynasties, vote buying and the correlates of certain Senators’ votes, drawing on data from the 2013 mid-term election in the Philippines. The analysis questions the inclusiveness and legitimacy of the political process. The evidence underscores the continued dominance of political dynasties, the prevalence of vote buying, and the powerful influence of name recall. Political dynasties, in the aggregate, appear to be on an upward trend since the election in 2004. Most of this seems due to a large number of dynastic candidates fielded by the most established (and therefore better financed) political parties. On vote-buying, a survey of 360 respondents from approximately the 4th and 5th income quintile living in Metro Manila showed vote-buying incidence of about 20% when a direct question was used — doubling to about 40% when an indirect question was used. Around 80% said they voted for the candidate because they like him/her or for his/her qualifications. This would suggest that vote buying could be used to encourage turnout notably in areas where would-be voters are already inclined to support the candidate. Finally, an empirical analysis of the share of voters cast at the provincial level for Bam Aquino and Nancy Binay suggests that each of these candidates benefited from strong support garnered by their relatives, President Aquino and Vice President Binay. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of votes for President Aquino (Vice President Binay) at the provincial level, translated into a 0.29 (0.19) percentage point increase in the votes for Bam Aquino (Nancy Binay).

Keywords: democracy; political dynasty; vote buying; name recall

JEL Classification: D70; I39; O53; P16

Suggested Citation

Mendoza, Ronald U. and Lopez, Mario Antonio and Yap II, David Barua and Canare, Tristan A., The 2013 Philippine Mid-Term Election: An Empirical Analysis of Dynasties, Vote Buying and the Correlates of Senate Votes (February 25, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2400874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2400874

Ronald U. Mendoza (Contact Author)

Ateneo De Manila University - Ateneo School of Government ( email )

Katipunan Road
Loyola Heights
Quezon City, 1108
Philippines

Mario Antonio Lopez

Asian Institute of Management ( email )

123 Paseo de Roxas
Makati City, Metro Manila
Philippines

David Barua Yap II

Asian Institute of Management - Policy Center ( email )

Eugenio Lopez Foundation Bldg
Joseph McMicking Campus, 123 Paseo de Roxas
Makati City
Philippines

Tristan A. Canare

Asian Institute of Management - Policy Center ( email )

Eugenio Lopez Foundation Bldg
Joseph McMicking Campus, 123 Paseo de Roxas
Makati City, Metro Manila
Philippines

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