Studying Dynamic Social Processes with ARIMA Modeling

Vasileiadou E. and Vliegenthart R. (2013), "Studying dynamic social processes with ARIMA modelling", International Journal for Social Research Methodology, DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2013.816257

31 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2014

See all articles by Eleftheria Vasileiadou

Eleftheria Vasileiadou

School of Innovation Sciences, Eindhoven University of Technology

Rens Vliegenthart

University of Amsterdam

Date Written: February 25, 2014

Abstract

With the increasing use of information and communication technologies (ICTs) there is a wealth of longitudinal data available, which open up new research directions. This availability necessitates special analytical tools, namely time series analysis methods. The paper focuses on ARIMA modeling and provides an outline of how it can be used in social sciences to study dynamic social processes. It provides a typology of dynamics of social processes, using the distinctions between stability versus fluctuation of a communication process and exogenous versus endogenous changes. Five distinct types of dynamics of social processes are outlined: stability; linear trend; different attractors; permanent effect; not permanent effect. Further, the paper examines how these types can be analyzed with the use of ARIMA modeling, and what this means for understanding of the underlying social process. Conclusions are drawn for the use of ARIMA in social sciences, and for understanding of dynamics of social processes.

Keywords: ARIMA, time series, social dynamics, communication dynamics

Suggested Citation

Vasileiadou, Eleftheria and Vliegenthart, Rens, Studying Dynamic Social Processes with ARIMA Modeling (February 25, 2014). Vasileiadou E. and Vliegenthart R. (2013), "Studying dynamic social processes with ARIMA modelling", International Journal for Social Research Methodology, DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2013.816257. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2401114

Eleftheria Vasileiadou (Contact Author)

School of Innovation Sciences, Eindhoven University of Technology ( email )

Eindhoven
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/eleftheriavasileiadou/

Rens Vliegenthart

University of Amsterdam ( email )

Spui 21
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

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