Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

Market-Based Collective Intelligence in Enterprise 2.0 Decision Making

Gimpel, Henner and Teschner, Florian (2014). Market-Based Collective Intelligence in Enterprise 2.0 Decision Making. In: Nickerson, J. and Malone, T. (eds.), Collective Intelligence 2014

4 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2014 Last revised: 27 Mar 2014

Henner Gimpel

University of Augsburg

Florian Teschner

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Date Written: January 15, 2014

Abstract

In the context of Enterprise 2.0 collective intelligence approaches, we explore the usage of prediction markets as organizational decision support tool. Such markets typically involve market participants (i.e. experts) with a vested interest in the decision. Simply carrying over knowledge on prediction markets to the design of such decision markets might be premature. To back this hypothesis, we build on theory and evidence on prediction markets, decision markets, and market manipulation, and test the key theoretical predictions in a lab experiment.

Our data suggest that indeed, people who have a stake in the decision manipulate the market and partially corrupt information aggregation. More precisely, we show how different designs of the principal’s decision rule affect manipulation, information aggregation, and decision quality. In a nutshell, we find that the common practice is better than random but worse than an alternative design.

Keywords: prediction markets, electronic markets, information aggregation, manipulation, experiments

Suggested Citation

Gimpel, Henner and Teschner, Florian, Market-Based Collective Intelligence in Enterprise 2.0 Decision Making (January 15, 2014). Gimpel, Henner and Teschner, Florian (2014). Market-Based Collective Intelligence in Enterprise 2.0 Decision Making. In: Nickerson, J. and Malone, T. (eds.), Collective Intelligence 2014. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2401590

Henner Gimpel (Contact Author)

University of Augsburg ( email )

Augsburg
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://gimpel.fim-rc.de

Florian Teschner

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology ( email )

Kaiserstraße 12
Karlsruhe, Baden Württemberg 76131
Germany

Paper statistics

Downloads
143
Rank
172,422
Abstract Views
687