Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error Correction Mechanisms

Abstract

The paper studies Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models such that: (1) the factors F_t are I(1) and singular, i.e. F_t has dimension r and is driven by a q-dimensional white noise, the common shocks, with q < r, and (2) the idiosyncratic components are I(1). We show that F_t is driven by r − c permanent shocks, where c is the cointegration rank of F_t, and q − (r − c) < c transitory shocks, thus the same result as in the non-singular case for the permanent shocks but not for the transitory shocks. Our main result is obtained by combining the classic Granger Representation Theorem with recent results by Anderson and Deistler on singular stochastic vectors: if (1 − L)F_t is singular and has rational spectral density then, for generic values of the parameters, F_t has an autoregressive representation with a finite-degree matrix polynomial fulfilling the restrictions of a Vector Error Correction Mechanism with c error terms. This result is the basis for consistent estimation of Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models. The relationship between cointegration of the factors and cointegration of the observable variables is also discussed.

Keywords: Dynamic Factor Models for I(1) variables, Cointegration, Granger Representation Theorem

JEL Classification: C0, C01, E0