Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System

Posted: 3 Mar 2014 Last revised: 12 Mar 2015

See all articles by Brigitte Knopf

Brigitte Knopf

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)

Yen‐Heng Henry Chen

Independent

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Hannah Förster

Öko-Institut

Amit Kanudia

KanORS

Ioanna Karkatsouli

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Ilkka Keppo

University College London

Tiina Koljonen

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Katja Schumacher

Institute für Applied Ecology

Detlef P. van Vuuren

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Date Written: February 27, 2014

Abstract

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the “Energy Roadmap 2050” presented by the European Commission.

Keywords: European Decarbonisation, Mitigation Scenarios, Model Comparison, Climate Change, EU Energy Roadmap 2050

JEL Classification: Q2, Q4

Suggested Citation

Knopf, Brigitte and Chen, Yen‐Heng Henry and De Cian, Enrica and Förster, Hannah and Kanudia, Amit and Karkatsouli, Ioanna and Keppo, Ilkka and Koljonen, Tiina and Schumacher, Katja and van Vuuren, Detlef P., Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System (February 27, 2014). FEEM Working Paper No. 15.2014; CMCC Research Paper No. RP0218. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2402191

Brigitte Knopf (Contact Author)

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) ( email )

Torgauer Straße 12-15
Berlin, 10829
Germany

Yen‐Heng Henry Chen

Independent

No Address Available
United States

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Campo S. M. Formosa, Castello 5252
Venice, 30122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Hannah Förster

Öko-Institut

Merzhauser Straße 173
Freiburg im Breisgau, 79100
Germany

Amit Kanudia

KanORS ( email )

Ioanna Karkatsouli

Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

Ilkka Keppo

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Tiina Koljonen

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland ( email )

FIN-02044 VTT
Finland

Katja Schumacher

Institute für Applied Ecology ( email )

Novalisstr. 10
Berlin, 10115
Germany
+49-30-405085321 (Phone)
+49-30-405085388 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.oeko.de

Detlef P. Van Vuuren

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven, 3721 MA
Netherlands

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