Is Crime in Turkey Economically Rational?

Discussion Papers on Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, 3/2014

24 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2014

See all articles by Jorgen Lauridsen

Jorgen Lauridsen

Centre of Health Economics Research, Department of Business and Economics; University of Southern Denmark - Department of Business and Economics

Fatma Zeren

Inonu University - Department of Econometrics

Ayse Ari

Istanbul University - Faculty of Economics

Date Written: March 3, 2014

Abstract

The study investigates whether crime in Turkey is governed by economic rationality. An economic model of rational behaviour claims that the propensity to commit criminal activities is negatively related to risk of deterrence. Potential presence of higher risk profiles for certain population segments is investigated. Panel data aggregated to sub-regional levels and observed annually for the years 2008 to 2010 are applied. Controls for endogeneity among criminal activity level and risk of deterrence, intra-regional correlation, inter-temporal heterogeneity and spatial spillover are exerted. A positive effect of risk of deterrence on criminal activity is found which conflicts with the hypothesised economic rationality. Certain population segments are identified as obvious target groups for regional policy initiatives aiming to reduce criminal activities. These are in particular unemployed and males. On the other hand, educational attainment, poverty and youngsters are less obvious target groups, while the relationship between population density and crime is ambiguous. Finally, spatial spillover patters related to criminal activities seem to be highly relevant, thus implying that while initiatives toward criminal activities may well be formed at the regional level, coordination across regions might obviously be called for.

Keywords: crime, risk of deterrence, Turkey, panel data, spatial spillover

JEL Classification: K42, C21, C23

Suggested Citation

Lauridsen, Jorgen and Lauridsen, Jorgen and Zeren, Fatma and Ari, Ayse, Is Crime in Turkey Economically Rational? (March 3, 2014). Discussion Papers on Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, 3/2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2403800 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2403800

Jorgen Lauridsen (Contact Author)

Centre of Health Economics Research, Department of Business and Economics ( email )

Faculty of Social Sciences
Campusvej 55
DK-5230 Odense M
Denmark

University of Southern Denmark - Department of Business and Economics ( email )

DK-5230 Odense
Denmark

Fatma Zeren

Inonu University - Department of Econometrics ( email )

Malatya
Turkey

Ayse Ari

Istanbul University - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Istanbul
Turkey

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