54 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2000
Date Written: August 2000
We extend a popular binomial model to allow for option pricing using real-world rather than risk-neutral world probabilities. There are three benefits. First, our model allows direct inference about relevant real-world probabilities (e.g. of success in a real-option project, of default on a corporate bond, or of an American-style option finishing in the money). Second, practitioners using our model for corporate real-option applications completely avoid managerial anxiety that competing risk-neutral models generate when they use risk-free discount rates for risky cash flows. Third, our model simplifies option pricing when higher moments (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) appear in asset pricing models.
JEL Classification: A23, G13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Arnold, Tom and Crack, Timothy Falcon, Option Pricing in the Real World: A Generalized Binomial Model with Applications to Real Options (August 2000). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=240554 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.240554