Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns

27 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2014

See all articles by Oumar Diallo

Oumar Diallo

United Nations

Sampawende Tapsoba

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: February 2014


This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.

Keywords: Business cycles, Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, Sub-Saharan Africa, Trade integration, Demand, Fiscal policy, Economic models, Business Cycle Synchronicity, and the BRICs., trade intensity, trading partners, industry trade, impact of trade, bilateral trade, trade flows, trade relations, aggregate demand, growing trade, terms of trade, patterns of trade, trade shocks, increased trade, bilateral flows, net inflows, measure of trade, trade links, global shocks, trade data, terms of trade shocks, international integration, changes in trade, trading blocs, asymmetric shocks, pattern of trade, trade variables, domestic demand, trade patterns, impact of trade integration, bilateral impor

JEL Classification: E30, F10, F30

Suggested Citation

Diallo, Oumar and Tapsoba, Sampawende, Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa's Business Cycle Patterns (February 2014). IMF Working Paper No. 14/35, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2407528

Oumar Diallo

United Nations ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States

Sampawende Tapsoba

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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