Debating the Little Ice Age

15 Pages Posted: 17 Mar 2014 Last revised: 21 Mar 2014

See all articles by Morgan Kelly

Morgan Kelly

University College Dublin (UCD) - Department of Economics

Cormac O'Grada

University College Dublin (UCD)

Date Written: March 15, 2014


This paper replies to commentaries by Sam White and by Ulf Büntgen and Lena Hellmann on our ‘The Waning of the Little Ice Age: Climate Change in Early Modern Europe’. White and Büntgen/Hellmann seek to prove that Europe experienced the kind of sustained falls in temperature between the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries that can justify the notion of a Little Ice Age. Neither of them adequately addresses the cogency of the anecdotal or statistical evidence presented in our article, especially with regard to the spurious peaks and troughs created by the smoothing of temperature series -- the so-called Slutsky Effect.

Keywords: Little Ice Age, Climate Change, Economic History

JEL Classification: N00, Q54

Suggested Citation

Kelly, Morgan and O'Grada, Cormac, Debating the Little Ice Age (March 15, 2014). Available at SSRN: or

Morgan Kelly

University College Dublin (UCD) - Department of Economics ( email )

Dublin 4, Dublin 4
+353 1 706 8611 (Phone)
+353 1 283 0068 (Fax)

Cormac O'Grada (Contact Author)

University College Dublin (UCD) ( email )

Dublin 4, 4

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