Hayek's Theory of Business Cycles: Theory That Will Remain Obscure

34 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2014

See all articles by Simon Bilo

Simon Bilo

Allegheny College - Department of Economics

Date Written: March 20, 2014

Abstract

Hayek’s theory of business cycles has been criticized for its unfeasible policy prescriptions, weak empirical support, and lack of technical rigor. Although the theory can be defended against these criticisms, it violates the rational expectations hypothesis, a criterion by which economists tend to judge the quality of economic arguments. Since Hayek and his followers failed to remedy or justify the violation, the theory cannot capture the interest of the economics profession today. To change this outcome, Hayek’s theory either needs a satisfactory restatement, or it has to wait until economists change the criteria for judging the quality of arguments.

Keywords: business cycle, expectations, Hayek

JEL Classification: B22, E32

Suggested Citation

Bilo, Simon, Hayek's Theory of Business Cycles: Theory That Will Remain Obscure (March 20, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2412162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2412162

Simon Bilo (Contact Author)

Allegheny College - Department of Economics ( email )

520 N. Main Street
Meadville, PA 16335
United States

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