Economic Growth X Environment: Forecasts for the Brazilian Economy and Its 5 Macro Regions, 2002 to 2012

Anais do II Encontro de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos. São Paulo, São Paulo, 2002

29 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2014

See all articles by Joaquim Guilhoto

Joaquim Guilhoto

University of Sao Paulo; Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (STI)

Ricardo L. Lopes

State University of Maringá

Ronaldo Seroa da Motta

Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)

Date Written: 2002

Abstract

Using the MIBRA model, an Applied Interregional General Equilibrium Model, constructed for the Brazilian economy and its five macro regions (North, Northeast, Central West, Southeast, an South), this papers tries to identify which would be the impact of the economic growth in the Brazilian economy an in its macro regions, from 2002 to 2012, on environmental variables, i.e., organic and inorganic materials, particulates, sulfurates, water, energy, CO2, and the Amazon rain forest. Concerning the economic growth rates, two scenarios are constructed, one pessimist and other optimistic, and the impact of both scenarios on the environmental variables are then measured. Some major environmental concerns are raised for each one of the Brazilian macro regions: a) for the North region, represented mainly by the Amazon rain forest, it is taken into the consideration the trade off between the area used by agricultural activities with the area used by the rain forest; b) for the Northeast region, the main concern is the restriction on water use; c) for the Central West region, it is taken into consideration the expansion of the agriculture frontier; d) for the Southeast and South regions, the more industrialized regions, pollutants are a problem.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Environment, Brasil

JEL Classification: O13, O47

Suggested Citation

Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins and Lopes, Ricardo Luis and Seroa da Motta, Ronaldo, Economic Growth X Environment: Forecasts for the Brazilian Economy and Its 5 Macro Regions, 2002 to 2012 (2002). Anais do II Encontro de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos. São Paulo, São Paulo, 2002, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2412200 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2412200

Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto (Contact Author)

University of Sao Paulo ( email )

Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908
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Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (STI) ( email )

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France

Ricardo Luis Lopes

State University of Maringá ( email )

Av. Colombo, 5790
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Maringa Parana 87020-900
Brazil
+55 44 3011.4905/5213 (Phone)
+55 44 3011.4938 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.dco.uem.br/

Ronaldo Seroa da Motta

Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) ( email )

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ap 401
Lagoa, 22470-001
Brazil
21997775494 (Phone)

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