Are Forward Premia Mean Reverting?
Posted: 13 Jun 2001
The return regression methodology is used to test for mean reversion in the forward market for US T-bills over the period 1964 to 1995. Substantial evidence of mean reversion is found in one- to ten-month forward spreads over the 12 to 24 month horizon. Such evidence is indicative of market inefficiency or speculative dynamics in models with time-invariant term premia. This is not necessarily the case, however, in models with time-varying term premia. We show that forward premia estimated using a multi-factor GARCH model accounts for this evidence, thus reconciling the evidence of mean reversion with market efficiency.
Keywords: Time-varying term premia, mean reversion, GARCH-M
JEL Classification: G10, E43
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation