How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

25 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2014

See all articles by Ray C. Fair

Ray C. Fair

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance

Date Written: March 27, 2014

Abstract

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

Keywords: Central Bank, Uncertainty, Stochastic Simulation

JEL Classification: E50

Suggested Citation

Fair, Ray C., How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty? (March 27, 2014). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1943. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2416810 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2416810

Ray C. Fair (Contact Author)

Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States
203-432-3715 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu

Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance ( email )

Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520
United States
203-432-3715 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
67
Abstract Views
340
rank
353,762
PlumX Metrics