Do Bond Investors Price Tail Risk Exposures of Financial Institutions?
Quarterly Journal of Finance
44 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2014 Last revised: 29 Mar 2021
Date Written: October 16, 2014
We analyze whether bond investors price tail risk exposures of financial institutions using a comprehensive sample of bond issuances by U.S. financial institutions. Although primary bond yield spreads increase with an institutions' own tail risk (expected shortfall), systematic tail risk (marginal expected shortfall) of the institution doesn't affect its yields. The relationship between yield spreads and tail risk is significantly weaker for depository institutions, large institutions, government-sponsored entities, politically-connected institutions, and in periods following large-scale bailouts of financial institutions. Overall, our results suggest that implicit bailout guarantees of financial institutions can exacerbate moral hazard in bond markets and weaken market discipline.
Keywords: Financial Institutions, Moral Hazard, Market discipline, Implicit Guarantee, TBTF, Too-big-to-fail, Bailout, Tail risk
JEL Classification: G21, G22, G24, G28
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation