21 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2014
Date Written: March 27, 2014
This paper describes the motivation behind, and design of, a system for eliciting and combining probabilistic forecasts from a pool of interested individuals as a way to help assess risks of mass atrocities and other related events in real time. This system is part of a larger pilot program undertaken by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum's Center for the Prevention of Genocide (CPG). This larger program aims to build and run a public early-warning system that uses the best available methods to routinely assess risks of mass atrocities in countries worldwide.
Keywords: forecasting, prediction, atrocities, mass killing, genocide, human rights
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