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Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to Forecast Mass Atrocities

21 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2014  

Jay Ulfelder

Independent

Date Written: March 27, 2014

Abstract

This paper describes the motivation behind, and design of, a system for eliciting and combining probabilistic forecasts from a pool of interested individuals as a way to help assess risks of mass atrocities and other related events in real time. This system is part of a larger pilot program undertaken by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum's Center for the Prevention of Genocide (CPG). This larger program aims to build and run a public early-warning system that uses the best available methods to routinely assess risks of mass atrocities in countries worldwide.

Keywords: forecasting, prediction, atrocities, mass killing, genocide, human rights

Suggested Citation

Ulfelder, Jay, Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to Forecast Mass Atrocities (March 27, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2418980 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2418980

Jay Ulfelder (Contact Author)

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

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