The Asian Economy: Trade Structure Interpreted by Feedback Loop Analysis

Journal of Applied Input-Output Analysis. Vol 2, N. 2, pp. 24-40, 1995

21 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2014

See all articles by Michael Sonis

Michael Sonis

Bar-Ilan University - Department of Geography and Environment; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Geography

Joaquim Guilhoto

University of Sao Paulo

Geoffrey J.D. Hewings

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Date Written: 1995

Abstract

The recent discussions that focused on the problems of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT] together with the emergence of strengthened and expanded free trade areas [such as NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUL/MERCOSUR] have created the need for careful analysis of the nature of internal and external dependence among nations and, within any nation, among the constituent regions. The picture that is obtained from inspection of import and export flows is only one (and often the smaller) part of the nature of dependence; there is a need to consider the indirect effects and, in addition, the possible feedbacks that may accrue from expansion of links between any two countries rippling through a broader set of economies and returning to expand activity in the originating economy. However, until recently, a dearth of data precluded the type of analysis conducted here; the development of consistent intercountry input-output tables for Europe enabled the first attempt at an understanding of intercountry dependencies (see Sonis, Oosterhaven and Hewings, 1993). This paper will explore similar perspectives with a set of Asian intercountry input-output tables for 1985. In this paper, some new perspectives are advanced that provide a more comprehensive view of the interactions between the economies of Asia. The analysis focuses on the potential for uncovering alternative perspectives about the role of linkages and multipliers in input-output systems. The analysis draws on some pioneering work by Miyazawa in the identification of internal and external multiplier effects. Paths of direct and indirect dependency are revealed as well as the nature and strength of feedback loops. In addition, some potential exists for contibutions to the debate raised by Krugman (1991, 1993) on the role of regionalism versus multilaterialism. Using these methods, it is possible to provide insights into the way in which these economies are integrated, the strength of the integration and the potential consequences of action in one economy on the rest of the system. The analysis parallels some earlier work on the European economies and will provide the basis for future comparative analysis as updated tables are produced.

Suggested Citation

Sonis, Michael and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins and Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., The Asian Economy: Trade Structure Interpreted by Feedback Loop Analysis (1995). Journal of Applied Input-Output Analysis. Vol 2, N. 2, pp. 24-40, 1995. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2420130

Michael Sonis

Bar-Ilan University - Department of Geography and Environment ( email )

Israel

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Geography ( email )

IL
United States
Not Available (Phone)
Not Available (Fax)

Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto (Contact Author)

University of Sao Paulo ( email )

Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908
FEA2
Sao Paulo, 05508-010
Brazil
+ 55 011 3091-5870 (Phone)
+ 55 011 3813-4743 (Fax)

Geoffrey J.D. Hewings

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

318 Davenport Hall
607 S. Mathews
Urbana, IL 61801-3671
United States
217-333-4740 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://real.illinois.edu

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