A Mirror of History: China's Bond Market, 1921–42

26 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2014

See all articles by Chun-Yu Ho

Chun-Yu Ho

State University of New York (SUNY) - Department of Economics

Dan Li

School of Economics, Fudan University

Date Written: May 2014

Abstract

This article provides a quantitative assessment of contemporary beliefs about historical events by econometrically identifying ‘break points’ in China's domestic bond market from 1921 to 1942. We find that these ‘break points’ usually coincided with the events highlighted by the Shanghai Newspaper - an influential daily newspaper produced during the time of the Republic of China. These events are also generally considered to be crucial by historians - for example, the Japanese invasion of Manchuria and the outbreak of the Second Sino‐Japanese War. However, some events to which historians attach great importance, such as the conflicts between Nationalists and Communists in the 1930s, were not reflected in the bond market and did not attract much media attention. Some events, such as the Sino‐Japanese ceasefire in Tanggu in 1933, were thought to be crucial by contemporaries, but have been downplayed by later observers.

Suggested Citation

Ho, Chun-Yu and Li, Dan, A Mirror of History: China's Bond Market, 1921–42 (May 2014). The Economic History Review, Vol. 67, Issue 2, pp. 409-434, 2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2422630 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0289.12026

Chun-Yu Ho (Contact Author)

State University of New York (SUNY) - Department of Economics ( email )

1400 Washington Ave
Albany, NY 12222
United States

Dan Li

School of Economics, Fudan University ( email )

600 GuoQuan Road
Shanghai, 200433
China

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