A Panel-Regressions Investigation of Exchange Rate Volatility

International Journal of Finance & Economics (Forthcoming)

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 Last revised: 19 Jul 2014

See all articles by Axel Grossmann

Axel Grossmann

Radford University

Alexei G. Orlov

Securities and Exchange Commission

Date Written: May 2014

Abstract

This paper offers an empirical explanation behind the dynamics of the overall volatility of exchange rates and its high-frequency, most economically destabilizing components. Spectral methodology is employed to isolate the portion of volatility attributable to high-frequency components, and panel regressions are used to relate the volatility measures to various macroeconomic and policy variables. Given the estimated panel regressions, the paper suggests policies that may help reduce exchange rate volatility in general and along high-frequency components in particular, thereby contributing to financial stability. The paper shows that while the macroeconomic and policy variables affecting the high-frequency components of volatility and overall volatility are generally similar, there are some important differences. The paper also highlights the divergent impacts of policy variables in developed vis-à-vis developing economies. The results are robust with respect to using alternative cut-off frequencies and estimation methods. The presented analysis may help to gain an understanding of the determinants of the most destabilizing components of exchange rate volatility and provide guidance into managing currency crises.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, spectral analysis, high-frequency components of volatility, macroeconomic and policy variables, panel estimation

JEL Classification: F31, C14, C33

Suggested Citation

Grossmann, Axel and Orlov, Alexei G., A Panel-Regressions Investigation of Exchange Rate Volatility (May 2014). International Journal of Finance & Economics (Forthcoming), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2424123

Axel Grossmann

Radford University ( email )

PO Box 6916
Radford, VA 24142
United States

Alexei G. Orlov (Contact Author)

Securities and Exchange Commission ( email )

100 F Street NE
Washington, DC 20549
United States

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