Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-98

Posted: 28 May 2001

See all articles by Kevin Lee

Kevin Lee

University of Leicester - Department of Economics

Kalvinder Shields

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

Abstract

Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure trend output in the manufacturing sector. This measure is compared with alternative trend measures obtained using aggregate manufacturing sector data only.

Suggested Citation

Lee, Kevin C. and Shields, Kalvinder, Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-98. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=242529

Kevin C. Lee (Contact Author)

University of Leicester - Department of Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
Leicester LE1 7RH, Leicestershire LE1 7RH
United Kingdom
0116 252 5348 (Phone)

Kalvinder Shields

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )

Melbourne, 3010
Australia

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