European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 – A Sectoral Multi-Model Decomposition

“European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 - A Sectoral Multi-model Decomposition" (preprint) published in Climate Change Economics, 04, 1340004 (2013), doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400046.

FEEM Working Paper No. 27.2014

CMCC Research Paper No. RP0217

Posted: 17 Apr 2014 Last revised: 31 Jan 2015

See all articles by Hannah Förster

Hannah Förster

Öko-Institut

Katja Schumacher

Institute für Applied Ecology

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Michael Hübler

Leibniz Universität Hannover

Ilkka Keppo

University College London

Silvana Mima

Université Grenoble Alpes

Ronald Sands

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) - Economic Research Service (ERS)

Date Written: April 17, 2014

Abstract

Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of economic production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long run. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.

Keywords: Decomposition Analysis, Decarbonization, Model Intercomparison

JEL Classification: Q4, Q5, Q51

Suggested Citation

Förster, Hannah and Schumacher, Katja and De Cian, Enrica and Hübler, Michael and Keppo, Ilkka and Mima, Silvana and Sands, Ronald, European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 – A Sectoral Multi-Model Decomposition (April 17, 2014). “European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 - A Sectoral Multi-model Decomposition" (preprint) published in Climate Change Economics, 04, 1340004 (2013), doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400046.; FEEM Working Paper No. 27.2014; CMCC Research Paper No. RP0217 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2426110

Hannah Förster (Contact Author)

Öko-Institut

Merzhauser Straße 173
Freiburg im Breisgau, 79100
Germany

Katja Schumacher

Institute für Applied Ecology ( email )

Novalisstr. 10
Berlin, 10115
Germany
+49-30-405085321 (Phone)
+49-30-405085388 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.oeko.de

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Campo S. M. Formosa, Castello 5252
Venice, 30122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Michael Hübler

Leibniz Universität Hannover ( email )

Institute f. Environm. Economics and World Trade
Koenigsworther Platz 1
30167 Hannover, DE 30167
Germany

Ilkka Keppo

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Silvana Mima

Université Grenoble Alpes ( email )

France

Ronald Sands

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) - Economic Research Service (ERS) ( email )

355 E Street, SW
Washington, DC 20024-3221
United States

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