Global Energy Security Under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities

“Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities” (preprint) published in the Journal of Climatic Change, doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0950-x.

FEEM Working Paper No. 29.2014

CMCC Research Paper No. RP0215

Posted: 19 Apr 2014 Last revised: 31 Jan 2015

See all articles by Aleh Cherp

Aleh Cherp

Central European University

Jessica Jewell

Central European University

Vadim Vinichenko

Central European University

Nico Bauer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Date Written: April 17, 2014

Abstract

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates the global energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.

Keywords: : Energy Security, Energy Scenarios, Long-Term Climate Policies, Fossil Resources Assumptions

JEL Classification: Q4, Q5, Q51

Suggested Citation

Cherp, Aleh and Jewell, Jessica and Vinichenko, Vadim and Bauer, Nico and De Cian, Enrica, Global Energy Security Under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities (April 17, 2014). “Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities” (preprint) published in the Journal of Climatic Change, doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0950-x.; FEEM Working Paper No. 29.2014; CMCC Research Paper No. RP0215. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2426137

Aleh Cherp

Central European University ( email )

Nador utca 9
Budapest, H-1051
Hungary

Jessica Jewell

Central European University ( email )

Nador utca 9
Budapest, H-1051
Hungary

Vadim Vinichenko

Central European University ( email )

Nador utca 9
Budapest, H-1051
Hungary

Nico Bauer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Enrica De Cian (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Campo S. M. Formosa, Castello 5252
Venice, 30122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

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