Political Conformity: Event-Study Evidence from the United States

56 Pages Posted: 22 Apr 2014 Last revised: 6 Jun 2016

See all articles by Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Ricardo Perez-Truglia

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: May 1, 2016

Abstract

We propose that individuals are more politically active in more like-minded social environments. To test this hypothesis, we combine administrative data from the Federal Election Commission and the United States Postal Service. We identify 45,000 individuals who contributed to Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign and who changed residences either before or after the 2012 election cycle. We examine whether living in an area with a higher share of Democrats causes higher contributions to Obama. We disentangle the direction of causality by exploiting the timing of residential mobility with an event-study analysis. We find that conformity effects are economically significant: increasing the share of Democrats by 1% increases the contribution to Obama by 0.11% (p-value<0.01). Last, we provide a model that uses the reduced-form estimates for counterfactual analysis. We find that 27% of the degree of geographic polarization in contributions can be attributed to conformity effects.

Keywords: conformity effects, geographic polarization, campaign contributions

JEL Classification: D72, H41

Suggested Citation

Perez-Truglia, Ricardo, Political Conformity: Event-Study Evidence from the United States (May 1, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2427146 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2427146

Ricardo Perez-Truglia (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) ( email )

405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/perez-truglia

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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