Wave Transition in Household Energy Use

Forthcoming Technological Forecasting and Social Change

23 Pages Posted: 22 Apr 2014 Last revised: 11 Sep 2015

See all articles by Rui Zhang

Rui Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU)

Taoyuan Wei

Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO)

Jie Sun

Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics (ZUFE)

Qinghua Shi

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU)

Date Written: March 6, 2015

Abstract

Energy ladder model and energy stacking model have been proposed in the literature to describe the relations between income growth and transition of energy consumed by households. Both models are largely descriptive and provide limited guidelines for quantitative verification. By contrast, the logistic substitution model has been adopted much earlier to depict the long-run energy transition of a society over time. This model assumes that substitute technologies in energy sources are available in the energy market. In the present paper, we argue that household energy transition over income can follow the same pattern as energy dynamics over time in the logistic substation model. Hence, we construct a new model, energy wave transition model, by adapting the logistic substitution model to describe household energy transition both over time and over income. The new model not only captures the features presented in energy ladder and energy stacking models, but also provides methods for quantitative verification. We illustrate the new model using the energy consumption pattern of Chinese households as an example.

Keywords: Energy life cycle curve; Energy wave transition; Energy ladder model; Energy stacking model; Energy-Environmental Kuznets Curve; Logistic substitution model

JEL Classification: Q40, O13, R21

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Rui and Wei, Taoyuan and Sun, Jie and Shi, Qinghua, Wave Transition in Household Energy Use (March 6, 2015). Forthcoming Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2427147 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2427147

Rui Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) ( email )

KoGuan Law School
Shanghai 200030, Shanghai 200052
China

Taoyuan Wei (Contact Author)

Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) ( email )

P.O. Box 1129 Blindern
Oslo, 0317
Norway

Jie Sun

Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics (ZUFE) ( email )

Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province 310018
China

Qinghua Shi

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) ( email )

KoGuan Law School
Shanghai 200030, Shanghai 200052
China

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