IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?

29 Pages Posted: 18 Jan 2001  

Michelle Lowry

Drexel University

G. William Schwert

University of Rochester - Simon Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2001

Abstract

We examine the strong cycles in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) and in the average initial returns realized by investors who participated in the IPOs. At the aggregate level, initial returns are predictably related to past initial returns and also to future IPO volume from 1960-1997. To understand these patterns, we use firm-level data from 1985-97 to model the initial return. Our results show that aggregate IPO cycles occur because of the time it takes to complete an IPO, the clustering of similar types of IPOs in time, and information spillovers among IPOs.

Keywords: IPO, Underpricing, Cycles, Private Information, Learning

JEL Classification: G32, G24, G14

Suggested Citation

Lowry, Michelle B. and Schwert, G. William, IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning? (June 2001). Simon School of Business Working Paper No. FR 00-21. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=242755 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.242755

Michelle B. Lowry

Drexel University ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States
215-895-6070 (Phone)

G. William Schwert (Contact Author)

University of Rochester - Simon Business School ( email )

Carol Simon Hall 3-110L
Rochester, NY 14627
United States
585-275-2470 (Phone)
585-461-5475 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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