Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields Around the World

45 Pages Posted: 28 Apr 2014 Last revised: 13 Nov 2022

See all articles by Arnaud Costinot

Arnaud Costinot

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Economics; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics

Dave Donaldson

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Stanford University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD)

Cory B. Smith

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Date Written: April 2014

Abstract

A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level dataset that contains information about the productivity---both before and after climate change---of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the Earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26% reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust.

Suggested Citation

Costinot, Arnaud and Costinot, Arnaud and Donaldson, Dave and Donaldson, Dave and Smith, Cory B., Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields Around the World (April 2014). NBER Working Paper No. w20079, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2430073

Arnaud Costinot (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Dave Donaldson

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ( email )

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Stanford University - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

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Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD) ( email )

Duke University
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Cory B. Smith

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
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Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
United States

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