Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model

Abstract

This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.

Keywords: Financial crisis, Credit expansion, Bank credit, Credit risk, Banks, Loans, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Economic models, lending boom, credit crunch, financialy cycle, asset price bubble, bank capital, bank balance sheets, bank deposits, banking, capital adequacy, capital regulation, probability of default, retained earnings, bank equity, banking sector, bank borrowers, prudential regulation, present value, recapitalization, bank credit creation, bank assets, bank liabilities, return on equity, bank capital regulation, banks loans, monetary authority, banking crises, banking activities, banking supervision, capital adequacy ratio, banking system, bank earnings, financial risk, b

JEL Classification: E32, E44, E47