Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method

40 Pages Posted: 3 May 2014

See all articles by Nauro F. Campos

Nauro F. Campos

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - The William Davidson Institute; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Fabrizio Coricelli

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics (PSE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Luigi Moretti

University of Padua - Department of Economics and Management

Abstract

This paper presents new estimates of the economic benefits from economic and political integration. Using the synthetic counterfactuals method, we estimate how GDP per capita and labour productivity would have behaved for the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in the 1973, 1980s, 1995 and 2004 enlargements, if those countries had not joined the EU. We find large positive effects from EU membership but these differ across countries and over time (they are only negative for Greece). We calculate that without deep economic and political integration, per capita incomes would have been, on average, approximately 12 percent lower.

Keywords: economic growth, European Union, synthetic counterfactuals

JEL Classification: C33, F15, F43, O52

Suggested Citation

Campos, Nauro F. and Coricelli, Fabrizio and Moretti, Luigi, Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8162. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2432446

Nauro F. Campos (Contact Author)

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - The William Davidson Institute

724 E. University Ave.
Wyly Hall
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Fabrizio Coricelli

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne ( email )

17, rue de la Sorbonne
Paris, IL 75005
France

Paris School of Economics (PSE)

48 Boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014 75014
France

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Luigi Moretti

University of Padua - Department of Economics and Management ( email )

Via del Santo, 33
Padova, 35123
Italy

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