How Does Bad and Good Volatility Spill Over Across Petroleum Markets?

The Energy Journal, 36(3), 309-329, 2015

22 Pages Posted: 12 May 2014 Last revised: 15 Oct 2017

See all articles by Jozef Barunik

Jozef Barunik

Charles University in Prague - Department of Economics; Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague

Evzen Kocenda

Charles University in Prague - Institute of Economic Studies; Institute of Information Theory and Automation (Czech Academy of Sciences) - Department of Econometrics; CESifo; University of Regensburg - Institute for East and Southeast European Studies; University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - The William Davidson Institute

Lukas Vacha

Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic; Charles University in Prague - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 10, 2014

Abstract

We detect and quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers using the realized semivariances of petroleum commodities: crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. During the 1987-2014 period we document increasing spillovers from volatility among petroleum commodities that substantially change after the 2008 financial crisis. The increase in volatility spillovers correlates with the progressive financialization of the commodities. In terms of asymmetries in spillovers we show that periods of increasing crude oil prices strongly correlate with dominating spillovers due to bad volatility. Overall, bad volatility due to negative returns spills over among petroleum commodities to a much larger extent than good volatility due to positive returns. After the 2008 financial crisis the asymmetries in spillovers markedly declined in terms of total as well as directional spillovers. An analysis of directional spillovers further reveals that no commodity dominates other commodities in terms of spillover transmission in general.

Keywords: volatility spillovers, asymmetry, petroleum markets

Suggested Citation

Barunik, Jozef and Kocenda, Evzen and Vacha, Lukas, How Does Bad and Good Volatility Spill Over Across Petroleum Markets? (May 10, 2014). The Energy Journal, 36(3), 309-329, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2435511 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2435511

Jozef Barunik (Contact Author)

Charles University in Prague - Department of Economics ( email )

Opletalova 26
Prague 1, 110 00
Czech Republic

HOME PAGE: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/en/staff/barunik

Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague ( email )

Pod vodarenskou vezi 4
CZ-18208 Praha 8
Czech Republic

HOME PAGE: http://staff.utia.cas.cz/barunik/home.htm

Evzen Kocenda

Charles University in Prague - Institute of Economic Studies ( email )

Opletalova St. 26
Prague, 11000
Czech Republic

HOME PAGE: http://kocenda.fsv.cuni.cz

Institute of Information Theory and Automation (Czech Academy of Sciences) - Department of Econometrics ( email )

Pod vodarenskou vezi 4
CZ-18208 Praha 8
Czech Republic

CESifo

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

University of Regensburg - Institute for East and Southeast European Studies

Landshuterstr. 4
Regensburg, 93047
Germany

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - The William Davidson Institute

724 E. University Ave.
Wyly Hall
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234
United States

Lukas Vacha

Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic ( email )

Pod vodarenskou vezi 4
Praha, CZ-18208
Czech Republic

Charles University in Prague - Department of Economics ( email )

Opletalova 26
Prague, 11000
Czech Republic

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