Market Intraday Momentum
48 Pages Posted: 24 May 2014 Last revised: 29 Jan 2020
Date Written: June 19, 2017
Based on high frequency data of the S&P 500 ETF from 1993–2013, we document an intraday momentum pattern: the ﬁrst half-hour return on the market since the previous day’s market close predicts the last half-hour return. The predictability, both statistically and economically signiﬁcant, is stronger on more volatile days, on higher volume days, on recession days, and on major macroeconomic news release days. This intraday momentum is also present for ten other most actively traded domestic and international ETFs. Theoretically, the intraday momentum is consistent not only with Bogousslavsky’s (2016) model of portfolio infrequent rebalancing, but also with a model of trading on late-informed news near the market close.
Keywords: Predictability, Intraday, Momentum, Economic Value
JEL Classification: G11, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation