Nowcasting Tourist Arrivals to Barbados - Just Google It!

2013 Central Bank of Barbados Annual Review Seminar, Barbados July 23-26 2013

14 Pages Posted: 28 May 2014 Last revised: 30 May 2014

See all articles by Mahalia Jackman

Mahalia Jackman

University of the West Indies (Cave Hill)

Simon Naitram

Pencarrek Limited; Central Bank of Barbados

Date Written: July 26, 2013

Abstract

This paper uses support vector regressions (SVRs) and Google search data to test whether observing internet habits can provide insights on trends in tourist arrivals to Barbados. We find evidence that Google Trends data may be used to (informally) pick up changing patterns and trends in tourist arrivals from the UK and Canada. But while graphical analysis show some similar patterns in the Google data and reported data on US arrivals, we find no evidence to suggest that Google data adds any significant information to what can be learned from an autoregressive-SVR.

Keywords: Nowcasting, tourism, Google, Barbados

JEL Classification: C53; L83

Suggested Citation

Jackman, Mahalia and Naitram, Simon, Nowcasting Tourist Arrivals to Barbados - Just Google It! (July 26, 2013). 2013 Central Bank of Barbados Annual Review Seminar, Barbados July 23-26 2013. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2441855 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2441855

Mahalia Jackman (Contact Author)

University of the West Indies (Cave Hill) ( email )

Cave Hill
Barbados

Simon Naitram

Pencarrek Limited ( email )

2nd Floor ITC Building
Warrens, St. Michael
Bridgetown
Barbados

Central Bank of Barbados ( email )

Tom Adams Financial Centre
Spry Street
Bridgetown, BB11126
Barbados
2468250055 (Phone)

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