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The Role of Predictions in Transport Policy Making and the Forecasting Profession: Misconceptions, Illusions and Cognitive Bias

17 Pages Posted: 29 May 2014  

Okan Duru

Texas A&M University at Galveston

Date Written: October 1, 2013

Abstract

This paper investigates the quantitative forecasting methods and procedures in transport policy making and criticises the existing applications based on the forecasting profession. Although many scholars presented predictions for transportation purposes, many of these predictions are out of the principles of forecasting and their validity is suspicious in terms of data preparations, stationarity theory, out of sample control, selection of accuracy metrics, residual control and benchmark selections. This paper presents a holistic view to forecasting principles and purposes a number of suggestions to validate and improve the existing approach.

Keywords: Forecasting science, transport forecasting, cognitive bias

JEL Classification: L91, H3, C53, E37, R41, C91

Suggested Citation

Duru, Okan, The Role of Predictions in Transport Policy Making and the Forecasting Profession: Misconceptions, Illusions and Cognitive Bias (October 1, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2442658 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2442658

Okan Duru (Contact Author)

Texas A&M University at Galveston ( email )

Langford Building A
798 Ross St.
College Station, TX 77843-3137
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.okanduru.com

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