Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997

AgMasReport 1999-03

46 Pages Posted: 30 Oct 2000

See all articles by Scott H. Irwin

Scott H. Irwin

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Thomas E. Jackson

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Darrel L. Good

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Date Written: October, 1999

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops. This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance. When services are grouped by performance quantile, some evidence of predictability is found for the poorest performing services, but not for top performing services.

JEL Classification: C81, D40, D82, G14, Q11, Q12, Q13, Q14

Suggested Citation

Irwin, Scott and Jackson, Thomas E. and Good, Darrel L., Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997 (October, 1999). AgMasReport 1999-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=244504 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.244504

Scott Irwin (Contact Author)

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

344 Mumford Hall
1301 W. Gregory Dr.
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
217-333-6087 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://scotthirwin.com/

Thomas E. Jackson

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

1301 W. Gregory Drive
434a Mumford Hall
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
(217) 333-2792 (Phone)
(217) 333-5538 (Fax)

Darrel L. Good

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

1301 W. Gregory Drive
326 Mumford Hall, MC-710
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

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