Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden

16 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2014

See all articles by Anders Sundell

Anders Sundell

University of Gothenburg - Department of Political Science, Quality of Government Institute

Michael S. Lewis-Beck

University of Iowa - Department of Political Science

Date Written: June 13, 2014

Abstract

We develop a simple structural forecasting model of govenment support in Swedish parliamentary elections, building on unemployment and inflation figures. The model predicts that the incumbent government will receive 49.7 percent of the vote in the september 2014 elections. In contrast, a simple model based on polling done in May predicts that the government will receive 43.4 percent of the vote. These rival approaches thus promise substantially different outcomes.

Keywords: Elections, forecasting, electoral behavior

JEL Classification: D72, P16

Suggested Citation

Sundell, Anders and Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden (June 13, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2450229 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2450229

Anders Sundell (Contact Author)

University of Gothenburg - Department of Political Science, Quality of Government Institute ( email )

Box 711
Göteborg, S-405 30
Sweden

Michael S. Lewis-Beck

University of Iowa - Department of Political Science ( email )

Iowa City, IA 52242
United States
319-335-2350 (Phone)

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