Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden
16 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2014
Date Written: June 13, 2014
We develop a simple structural forecasting model of govenment support in Swedish parliamentary elections, building on unemployment and inflation figures. The model predicts that the incumbent government will receive 49.7 percent of the vote in the september 2014 elections. In contrast, a simple model based on polling done in May predicts that the government will receive 43.4 percent of the vote. These rival approaches thus promise substantially different outcomes.
Keywords: Elections, forecasting, electoral behavior
JEL Classification: D72, P16
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