Correlated Equilibria in Voter Turnout Games

64 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2014 Last revised: 24 Mar 2017

See all articles by Kirill Pogorelskiy

Kirill Pogorelskiy

University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Date Written: October 23, 2014

Abstract

Communication is fundamental to elections. This paper extends canonical voter turnout models to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of correlated equilibria.

In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can be used to coordinate behavior in such a way that voters find it incentive compatible to always follow their signals past the communication stage. The highest-turnout equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs, and show intuitive comparative statics on turnout: it varies with the relative sizes of different groups, and decreases with the cost of voting.

This research provides a general foundation for group-based theories of voter mobilization, or voting driven by communication on a network.

Keywords: turnout paradox, rational voting, group-based voter mobilization, correlated equilibrium, pre-play communication

JEL Classification: C72, D72

Suggested Citation

Pogorelskiy, Kirill, Correlated Equilibria in Voter Turnout Games (October 23, 2014). APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2451740

Kirill Pogorelskiy (Contact Author)

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://warwick.ac.uk/kbp

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