Geography in Election Forensics

21 Pages Posted: 28 Aug 2014

See all articles by Walter R. Mebane

Walter R. Mebane

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Political Science

Kirill Kalinin

Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

We begin to investigate how geography affects the ability to draw inferences - based on reported vote counts - about election frauds or about other election features such as voters' strategies. Can we localize places where anomalies occur? It can be important to take into account geographic features such as local jurisdictional boundaries, but beyond that is proximity in physical space important? Should physically neighboring precincts be analyzed as having similar probabilities of frauds or of voters acting strategically, say, independent of whatever other covariates may be used in some model? We begin to study these concerns using data from several countries (Germany, Mexico, Russia).

Keywords: election forensics,geography,GIS,second digit tests,elections

JEL Classification: C14

Suggested Citation

Mebane, Walter R. and Kalinin, Kirill, Geography in Election Forensics (2014). APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2452260

Walter R. Mebane (Contact Author)

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Political Science ( email )

Ann Arbor, MI 48109
United States

Kirill Kalinin

Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305-6010
United States

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