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National Polls, District Information and House Seats: Forecasting the 2014 Midterm Election

15 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2014  

Joseph Bafumi

Dartmouth College

Robert S. Erikson

Columbia University - Department of Political Science

Christopher Wlezien

University of Texas at Austin

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

Our forecast, based on information gathered 121 to 180 days out (essentially May and June), is a near-certain Republican hold of the House. In terms of the national vote, the most likely outcome is a Republican plurality of about 52.5% of the two-party vote. Of course, seats are what matter, and by our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 248 seats versus 187 for the Democrats. Taking into account the uncertainty in our model, the Republicans have about a 1% chance of losing the House. As circumstances can change during the election year, we provide guidance for updating the forecast based on new information that will become available leading up to Election Day.

Suggested Citation

Bafumi, Joseph and Erikson, Robert S. and Wlezien, Christopher, National Polls, District Information and House Seats: Forecasting the 2014 Midterm Election (2014). APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2453369

Joseph Bafumi (Contact Author)

Dartmouth College ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States

Robert Erikson

Columbia University - Department of Political Science ( email )

MC3320
420 West 118th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-0036 (Phone)

Christopher Wlezien

University of Texas at Austin ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

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