National Polls, District Information and House Seats: Forecasting the 2014 Midterm Election

Abstract

Our forecast, based on information gathered 121 to 180 days out (essentially May and June), is a near-certain Republican hold of the House. In terms of the national vote, the most likely outcome is a Republican plurality of about 52.5% of the two-party vote. Of course, seats are what matter, and by our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 248 seats versus 187 for the Democrats. Taking into account the uncertainty in our model, the Republicans have about a 1% chance of losing the House. As circumstances can change during the election year, we provide guidance for updating the forecast based on new information that will become available leading up to Election Day.