Presidential Approval in Hard Times: Mexico’s War on Crime

Abstract

In order to effectively fight criminal organizations, governments require support from significant segments of society. Citizens’ support provides important leverage for incumbents, and allows them to continue their policies. Yet, winning the hearts and minds of citizens is not an easy endeavor. Crime affects citizens’ most valuable assets: life and property. How citizens translate their public security assessments into presidential approval should partially determine presidential decision-making, and the degree to which citizens may hold the incumbent accountable. Using Mexico as case study, we measure the effects upon approval of three dimensions of public security: crime victimization, performance evaluation, and policy intervention support. We find that public security matters for determining presidential approval; under certain conditions, it matters more than the economy or partisanship. Citizens seem to reward effort more heavily than performance. Crime victimization negatively affects approval, yet the impact is small as compared to other security dimensions.