Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run

87 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Jevgenijs Steinbuks

Jevgenijs Steinbuks

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP)

Date Written: June 1, 2014

Abstract

Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.

Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases, Environmental Economics & Policies, Climate Change Economics, Environment and Energy Efficiency, Energy and Environment

Suggested Citation

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs and Hertel, Thomas W., Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run (June 1, 2014). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6928, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2456459

Jevgenijs Steinbuks (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
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Washington, DC 20433
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Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

Department of Agricultural Economics
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West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
765-494-4199 (Phone)
765-494-9176 (Fax)

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

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Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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